Friday, March 28, 2008

Evidence Arguing Against Hosting Ads


This is a talk about carrying advertising on your web comic. You may find me reaching some surprising conclusions.

I am, at heart, a scientist, and must point out that my data is from a small sample and that various arguments can be made regarding how I parsed it. This is all fine, critique away. I will be quite pleased to revise my opinions if better data uncovers errors in my thinking.

I've taken the Piperka "Most Popular" list and done some segregating.

I divided the comics into two groups, depending on whether they carry ads.

The first number is the comic's position in the Piperka Top 30. The number in parentheses is the number of subscribers the comic has at Piperka. The number of subscribers is what determines "popularity."

If you've been following these things, you know that a small number of web comics written for a gaming audience have done very well with advertising. Very, very well. I've flagged gaming comics, which to me include fantasies about elves and trolls, with a "G."

Dinosaur Comics is so closely affiliated with the online ad industry (shared ownership) that it can't not carry ads, so it gets an asterisk.

No ads:
  • 1 - xkcd (283)
  • 4 - The Order of the Stick (235) G
  • 5 - Perry Bible Fellowship (230)
  • 9 - Dresden Codak (161)
  • 15 - Gunnerkrigg Court (133)
  • 17 - Erfworld (128) G
  • 21 - minus (112)
  • 28 - Dominic Deegan (102)
Ads:
  • 2 - Questionable Content (256)
  • 3 - Penny Arcade (246) G
  • 6 - Girl Genius (204)
  • 7 - VG Cats (191) G
  • 8 - Ctrl+Alt+Del (187) G
  • 10 - Sinfest (159)
  • 11 - The Adventures of Dr. McNinja (151)
  • 12 - Something Positive (144) G
  • 13 - PvP (140) G
  • 14 - Megatokyo (138)
  • 16 - Dinosaur Comics (131)*
  • 18 - Looking for Group (123) G
  • 19 - 8-Bit Theater (121) G
  • 20 - Sluggy Freelance (115)
  • 22 - Shortpacked! (111)
  • 23 - Applegeeks (107)
  • 24 - Inverloch (106) G
  • 25  - Starslip Crisis (106)
  • 26 - Gone with the Blastwave (103)
  • 27 - Scary-Go-Round (103)
  • 29 - Schlock Mercenary (101)
  • 30 - Goblins (100) G
Next, we remove the gaming and ad industry titles from the list:


No ads:
  • 1 - xkcd (283)
  • 5 - Perry Bible Fellowship (230)
  • 9 - Dresden Codak (161)
  • 15 - Gunnerkrigg Court (133)
  • 21 - minus (112)
  • 28 - Dominic Deegan (102)
Ads:
  • 2 - Questionable Content (256)
  • 6 - Girl Genius (204)
  • 10 - Sinfest (159)
  • 11 - The Adventures of Dr. McNinja (151)
  • 14 - Megatokyo (138)
  • 20 - Sluggy Freelance (115)
  • 22 - Shortpacked! (111)
  • 23 - Applegeeks (107)
  • 25 - Starslip Crisis (106)
  • 26 - Gone with the Blastwave (103)
  • 27 - Scary-Go-Round (103)
  • 29 - Schlock Mercenary (101)
We see that among the remaining comics are multiple titles that could easily support ads, but choose not to.

Among those which do carry ads, I would expect that Girl Genius and Questionable Content have the capacity to generate significant revenue from ads. Scary-Go-Round seems less prominent in this list than others I've seen, so it may also be a recipient of notable ad bucks.

So that there's no guessing about my agenda, let me state that I am generally anti-ad. I believe that ads on web comic pages degrade the strip, the artist and the medium.

I believe that a careful study of Google Adwords and Project Wonderful would reveal that for 99.5% of non-gaming comics, ads are at best marginally productive.

I think some people mistakenly believe that hosting ads is a badge of professionalism that gives a comic heft. This, of course, is a naive and unprofessional conclusion if I am right -- though if enough people think it is so, then it may have merit via mass hysteria.

In the quest to get paid for doing comics, I believe that quality is the most marketable element (unless you are writing about video games). Original writing and development of a unique artistic style that is not reliant on newspaper comic cliches is my idea of quality.

This kind of quality will feed revenue sources that are alternatives to carrying commercial messages. Merchandising, art sales and printed collections will benefit from a quality comic presented on a site that is free of advertising. More broadly, the whole concept of web comics will benefit: sites will look better, more readers will arrive, and the illusion of ad riches will no longer draw as many hacks to the craft. Inevitable contractions in ad spending won't maroon readers mid-saga as ad-dependent comics go belly up.

My ideas on this subject come from a career as a diversified entrepreneur. I noticed that under many circumstances, cutting ad spending made my sales go up. Satisfied clients became my self-appointed apostles, referring new work to me at such a pace I had to cut ad spending more. Then of course, still more referrals came. The quality of my clients increased. My competitors bragged of their growth right up until they went out of business.

I am also impressed by The Economics of Web Comics, 2nd Edition, by Todd Allen. It's such an inexpensive book you'd be making a false economy to skip it. 

Which brings us back to the question of going without ads. Why not make it a marketing plus, and include notice that you are ad free and therefore a treat for the eyes? That's where the real status lies.


What's remarkable about the list of comics hosting ads is how cheaply some have "sold out": a single banner guiltily buried at the bottom of the page, or a Google Adwords account. I suspect that for the more thoughtful and artistic comics, these ads do more damage than add to value. A good example is the gorgeous minus, which wisely refrains from ads. A flashing banner under a minus page would be as relatively disgusting as a neon sign above the Mona Lisa.

An lengthy but important piece of journalism that all web comics creators should read appeared recently in The Daily Cartoonist. It's a roundtable featuring loads of web people and some from the world of syndicated cartoons. Scraps of hard information are offered about total web comic revenue and total ad revenue for a few strips, and it suggests I may be underestimating ad revenue potential for strips like Girl Genius. Until someone provides guidance, I can only take my best guess. My feeling remains that only a small number of strips not associated with gaming are in a position where the argument favoring advertising might be persuasive.

It's clear that any discussion of advertising and web comics must remove gaming titles from the main discussion, as their entire business and thematic models are distinct to them. This clears the air for a sober re-evaluation by the rest of us. This is the main fault of the Daily Cartoonist piece: this boundary is not delineated. A follow-up with participation by the non-gaming majority would be informative, and Daily Cartoonist would be the ideal host.

One note about the Daily Cartoonist piece referenced earlier. Some participants seem to have been wounded by the comments of others, and there is a fair amount of calling for diplomatic tones. Reading the text copy, one wonders what the offending comments were, as everyone seems to be quite reasonable, if passionate. Don't come away put off. Most or all of the participants are decent and well-meaning people.

I am eager to learn if and where I am wrong about my economic analysis. If you have something to add or a counter-argument to make, have at.